TELF AG analyzes the global trends of the electric vehicle market
The frontiers of mobility of the future
The world is progressively preparing to welcome a great number of electric vehicles onto its roads, which, together with clean energy and related technologies, could undoubtedly represent the major drivers of the global ecological transition. In this phase, which in a certain sense could be defined as preparatory, many nations are already gearing up to create charging stations for electric vehicles, making an entire network of charging stations distributed on motorways available to those who already own them, and in other strategic points.
The increase in demand for this type of vehicle will also lead to a parallel growth in the raw materials needed to make some of their key components, such as batteries. Among these, we remember lithium, nickel, graphite, and cobalt, which in the coming decades could come under the spotlight due to the sudden increases in demand that could involve them. According to some forecasts by McKinsey and the IEA, the demand for these raw materials will surely grow by 2040, with percentages between 200 and 1,500%.
For example, the demand for copper and cobalt could grow by 241 and 278% in the next sixteen years, while the demand for manganese and graphite could exceed 700% of the current. The demand for nickel is destined to increase by 843%, while the most impressive one is lithium, which, according to the estimates of the two institutions, could even reach an increase of 1,519%. Although battery technologies constantly evolve, often resulting in substantial changes in their chemical (and therefore mineral) composition, the materials above are still considered “critical” for manufacturing electric vehicles and their energy storage systems. The use of strategic minerals for the creation of electric cars naturally determines an increase in the overall weight of the vehicle, which is almost always around six times higher than that of traditional cars.
Market performances
But how is the sale of electric cars progressing globally? According to the 2023 Global EV Outlook, created by the IEA, as many as 10 million sales of electric vehicles would have occurred in 2022, with China representing the primary destination market (with a percentage of approximately 60%). In Europe, the second market for these electric vehicles, sales increased by 15% in 2022, and one in five cars sold was electric. The sales increase, albeit with slower growth rates, also occurred in 2023: last year, between total electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles, 14 million cars were sold globally, according to data collected by BloombergNEF.
The number of charging stations also appears to be continuously increasing: at the end of 2022, according to the IEA report, as many as 2.7 million charging points had been installed worldwide, of which 850,000 were capable of recharging batteries in a much more efficient manner. Half of these stations are located in China, while in Europe, their total figure did not exceed 500,000 units (the European countries where most of these plants are located are the Netherlands, France, and Germany).
