TELF AG analyzes the present and future of the electric vehicle battery sector

The evolution of component chemistry

In the coming decades, the global market for electric vehicle batteries could be closely tied to the fate of some of the most important minerals and raw materials for the production of cathodes and anodes and to the continuous emergence of new compositional solutions for battery chemistry.

According to the IEA, which discussed it in its latest report on strategic minerals, solutions based on lithium-iron-phosphate (LFP) and lithium-manganese-iron-phosphate (LMFP) could be destined to win the largest market shares from 2035 onwards. Furthermore, the LMFP variant, due to its higher energy density compared to the traditional LFP, could stand out for optimal performance, even from the mere use point of view, thus also taking a share of the LFP.

As stated in the IEA report, a trend that is being observed with increasing attention is certainly the one that has to do with nickel. Over the next few years, this material could be destined to play an increasingly important role in the chemistry of battery cathodes, partially replacing other materials used for these purposes.

In the market for high-nickel-content batteries, moreover, solutions based on the presence of manganese – such as the NMC variant, rich in lithium-manganese and lithium-nickel-manganese oxide – could be destined to conquer increasingly more relevant market shares, even in the medium range. Also, in this case, according to the IEA, such performances would be attributable to the structural characteristics of these substances, particularly the energy density (which is higher than that of LFPs but still lower than chemistries based on a high nickel content).

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Lithium and manganese-rich metal oxides, in particular, could make inroads into the high-energy density market due to their ability to store high lithium concentrations. The report also provides valuable insights into nickel-rich chemistries, which, while still playing a leading role, could lose ground to manganese-rich chemistries and LFP/LMFP solutions by 2040. If this trend holds, it would certainly be a relevant shift from a few years ago: in 2020, nickel-based chemistries occupied a solid position in the global EV battery market.

The IEA also discusses the role of sodium-ion batteries, which the report predicts will play a major role from 2030 onwards. By 2040, these solutions are expected to occupy a 10% share of the global market, eventually replacing some LFPs in the low-range electric vehicle market (this trend could be accentuated if lithium prices were to increase). According to the report, however, the LFP solution remains the preferred choice in the battery market.

One of the trends identified for anodes, on the other hand, has to do with silicon: this material, according to the IEA, will be used increasingly to compose these parts of the batteries, and in a not-too-distant future, it could join solutions based on the use of graphite. According to the report, the share of silicon present in batteries could even exceed 50%. Lithium metal anodes are also destined to play an important role after 2035.