Tracking the Forces Reshaping Global Commodities in 2026

2026 could prove to be a rather eventful year for commodity markets. This is according to a special article by BloombergNEF Commodities, Energy, and Environmental Markets, whose specialists have attempted to outline the trends and thematic focuses to closely monitor in the short and medium term.

One of the most interesting points highlighted by BloombergNEF experts concerns copper, a resource that humanity has known for millennia. As the article states, demand for copper has continued to grow steadily throughout 2025, driven in particular by the electrification of transportation and the emerging data center sector for artificial intelligence. BloombergNEF lists the proliferation of electric vehicles, grid deployment, and rechargeable battery production among the factors likely to impact the copper market in 2026.

“Copper has always been able to concretely assist humanity, supporting civilization in its attempts to progress and advance at various stages of history. Today, these processes are repeating themselves again, particularly through copper’s key role in global electrification,” says Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.

LNG, Renewable Fuels, and Asia’s Energy Future: Market Trends to Watch

Bloomberg experts also focused on LNG and its unique market dynamics. According to the article, this market is gradually moving towards oversupply. This year, in fact, as the analysis states, new production capacity is expected in the United States, Australia, Mexico, and other countries.

Among the most interesting projects is Golden Pass LNG in Texas, which could add two out of three production trains in 2026, with a capacity of approximately 5.2 million tons each. BloombergNEF also notes that a significant portion of this new capacity could enter the spot market, putting downward pressure on prices.

BloombergNEF has dedicated part of its analysis to another rapidly growing sector: next-generation fuels. In China, a new sustainable blending target for aviation fuels is expected to be introduced with the upcoming announcement of the fifteenth five-year plan.

In one of the scenarios discussed in the article, the announced production capacity volume would reach an annual rate of more than 1 billion gallons, equivalent to approximately half of all global additions announced next year. In this regard, BloombergNEF’s forecasts seem quite clear: China is indeed preparing to play a central role in the production of renewable fuels, with likely consequences for supply chains and the global costs of new fuels.

“Through its concrete and far-sighted policies, China already appears to have a very good chance of establishing itself in this very interesting sector,” continues Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.

Structural Shifts and Energy Pricing: Japan’s Evolving Power Landscape

Another factor to consider, according to BloombergNEF experts, is the potential increase in energy prices in Japan over the next five years. Compared to 2025, BloombergNEF forecasts that energy prices in Japan could decrease by approximately 5.1%, averaging around 11.4 yen per kilowatt-hour.

BloombergNEF also mentions potential structural changes that could affect the Japanese energy system, such as the aging of traditional generators and their replacement with renewable energy. In such a scenario, potential peaks could put some pressure on the electricity system.

“The Japanese data appears particularly interesting, as electricity prices in Japan generally provide insights into how commodity costs are passed on to the real economy. It is, in effect, a contextual indicator for the energy commodity market,” concludes Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.