TELF AG analyzes the recent performances of some important commodities
The link with renewable energy
An increasingly important part of the global discussions on sustainability, for some years now, has been focusing more and more on the role of raw materials, particularly on all those minerals and metals considered strategic for constructing a social and economic model based on green energy. Some of these raw materials, such as lithium or cobalt, have been included in the lists of strategic resources for the green transition, and their centrality on the international level appears destined to remain intact.
2023 saw a real boom in renewables from a pure energy point of view. A technology that is now welcomed throughout the world as one of the most reliable means to entrust the energy fate of the planet. This success is also due to the raw materials needed to build technologies related to clean energy, without forgetting electric vehicles and infrastructure related to electrification.
The key factors
An attentive and aware observer may wonder whether the centrality of these resources will also be confirmed in the year that has just begun or whether the global raw materials market will be crossed by unpredictable movements linked to various variables. According to the opinion of some experts and analysts, reported in an important European economic newspaper, the performance of strategic minerals during 2024 could depend on some very specific factors: the existing imbalance between the demand for lithium, nickel, and cobalt and their massive availability, but also the stop to incentives on electric cars and the critical issues that characterize the copper supply chain.
As stated by the experts interviewed by the newspaper, the possible growth in electric car sales in China could stop the decline in lithium and nickel prices witnessed in 2023. Also, the end of incentives for purchasing electric cars in China and the United States could pointedly influence the raw materials market, resulting in unexpected fluctuations. Together with cobalt – which has recently been reported for an excess of supply – these raw materials are those of primary importance for producing batteries for electric vehicles, which constitute one of the most important components. Fluctuations in raw material prices could also influence the market for electric cars and related batteries, which are already quite lively due to the advancement of lithium-iron-phosphate batteries (which cost around 30% less than lithium ones).
According to analysts interviewed by Sole24Ore, in 2024, the attention of global energy players could return to focus on copper and aluminum, particularly appreciated for their flexibility and ability to adapt to different types of use. Renewable energies are largely dependent on copper due to its unique properties in the field of conductivity for electrical circuits and the technologies that allow the diffusion of renewable energies. Aluminum also plays a key role in this sector, as well as in electric vehicles and highly energy-efficient electrical networks. Aluminum production in China – which is currently driving the global energy transition with its renewable energies – appears to be influenced by market contractions, particularly regarding supply.
According to analysts, however, the success of the global energy transformation will largely depend on the support provided by governments and related strategic policies, which in recent years have always considered strategic minerals with due attention.
