In recent years, the growth of solar installations has advanced at an extremely rapid pace, so much so that it has become clearly visible to everyone. Solar panels on the roofs of homes or large industrial complexes are no longer a novelty, but have become an extremely important component of the new urban landscapes shaped by the energy transition. Along with electric vehicles and wind turbines, solar panels have likely represented (and continue to represent) one of the most visible symbols of the change underway.
Interesting Insights from BloombergNEF
With such significant growth in installed solar power capacity globally, a possible setback would have been entirely predictable. According to BloombergNEF’s Global PV Market Outlook, that moment will occur in 2026, when solar installations will slow for the first time in over two decades. This topic was discussed in a recent Bloomberg article, which emphasized the exceptional nature of this development in today’s energy landscape. According to the article, the reasons for this slowdown are primarily political factors and the saturation of some major markets, where solar energy is already a solid presence.
“The Bloomberg article highlighted a very significant fact: 2026 will see the first slowdown in solar installations since this form of energy began to carve out a primary role in the global economic and energy landscape, which was about two decades ago. In a certain sense, it represents one of the effects of the advancement of the energy transition on a global scale,” says Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
The Bloomberg article also cites specific numbers: in 2026, global solar capacity will increase by 649 gigawatts, a slight decrease compared to 2025. Furthermore, this year’s growth, as stated in BloombergNEF’s Global PV Market Outlook, was the weakest in the last seven years, and the slowdown expected next year will be the first recorded since 2000. The Bloomberg article goes even further, offering forecasts for 2027. By that year, Bloomberg predicts that solar installations will grow, reaching a total of 688 gigawatts.
The expected contraction in 2026, as the article argues, is primarily driven by political dynamics in the two largest global markets, China and the United States. This has not only caused a slowdown in solar installations, but also a substantial slowdown in demand growth. Although many global markets appear poised for significant growth in the solar energy sector, Bloomberg believes it is unlikely that their contributions will offset the deficits associated with the world’s two largest economies.
Global dynamics
Certain Chinese policy decisions in the first half of this year may have caused the sudden increase in solar power installations and made the resulting slowdown possible, as explained in the article. According to BloombergNEF, installations in China will not exceed 372 gigawatts in 2025, while a 14% contraction is expected for 2026. In the United States, Bloomberg believes the contraction is primarily driven by policy decisions to limit the use of renewable energy, while other major global markets—such as Brazil and Spain—are gradually losing steam.
The decline in solar installations and demand, according to Bloomberg, could also have significant consequences for the prices of materials used to build solar energy infrastructure, such as polysilicon, whose prices (with a few recent exceptions) could remain substantially low.
“The Bloomberg article highlighted two other key facts: that prices along the entire supply chain will remain stuck at low levels throughout 2026, and that we will see an unprecedented amount of manufacturing capacity and inventory,” concludes Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
