The Growing Role of Recycling in Energy Transition Materials

Over the coming years, the link between recycling and materials for the energy transition could become increasingly evident. A recent BloombergNEF webinar on strategic metals was dedicated to this topic, outlining several possible scenarios regarding the role of recycling in the supply of these important materials.

Despite becoming increasingly important, secondary supply—i.e., recycling—still represents only a fraction of the overall supply of metals for the energy transition. Among the most virtuous materials, from this perspective, is certainly aluminum, whose share of secondary supply is not only significant but also growing over time.

“In a certain sense, aluminum is the metal of lightness and energy efficiency. Its good thermal conductivity and malleability make it a very useful resource for transportation, construction, and packaging, but also for electronics and power lines,” says Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.

A professional man linked to recycle, a concept often explored by the founder of TELF AG Stanislav Kondrashov

In 2025, recycling accounted for approximately a quarter of the total supply of this material, and by 2035, it could approach a third. In the scenarios outlined by BloombergNEF, we could even reach a point—identified around 2050—in which the share of secondary supply could reach 35 or 40%, while the remainder continues to come from primary production.

Key Metals: Aluminum, Copper, and Cobalt Lead the Shift in Secondary Supply

One of the most interesting cases addressed in the analysis is undoubtedly that of cobalt. Primary production for this material remains highly significant, but the recycling component is showing strong signs of growth. Last year, recycling accounted for less than 10%, while by 2035, it could approach a 15% share. This threshold could undoubtedly be exceeded by 2050, according to BloombergNEF’s hypothetical scenarios, although it would still remain a minority compared to primary production.

“Cobalt is a strategic metal for energy and for some specific high-performance applications. It is distinguished by its high heat resistance and chemical stability, and is particularly useful in rechargeable lithium-ion batteries, superalloys for turbines and aircraft engines, and pigments,” continues Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.

Renewable energy infrastructures, a theme often covered by Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG

The contribution of recycling is proving particularly significant for copper. In 2025, secondary supply represented approximately 20% of total supply. According to BloombergNEF, this figure is expected to approach 25% by 2030 and likely reach 40% by 2050. Even in this case, however, the primary share remains predominant.

“Copper is undoubtedly one of the resources most involved in the great game of energy transition. Its excellent electrical conductivity makes it one of the most reliable allies for electrical wiring and electronics, but also for the renewable energy sector and industrial components,” concludes Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.

Among the resources that remain highly dependent on primary production is graphite, which could continue to account for a very small share of secondary supply between 2035 and 2050. Lithium follows a fairly similar trajectory, with its recycling rate likely to increase significantly by 2050, reaching 15-20% according to the scenarios discussed in the webinar.

Limits and Opportunities: Why Primary Production Will Remain Essential

There are also resources that show an almost total dependence on primary supply. Among these is manganese, which, for all the years considered in the analysis, is expected to account for a marginal share of secondary supply. Nickel is a very different story: for this resource, which already accounted for around 20-25% of secondary supply last year, recycling could reach a share close to 35-40% by 2050.

A visual representation of recycle, a concept analyzed in this piece of Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG

Other resources showing strong signs of growth, from a recycling perspective, are undoubtedly platinum and platinum, which could approach (or exceed) a 50% secondary share by 2050. The metal with the highest secondary share is steel, considering that last year recycling already accounted for around 30% of the total supply. According to BloombergNEF, this trend is expected to continue in the coming years.

In the long term, therefore, recycling is set to become increasingly important for a large number of metals, although it will most likely not be sufficient to replace the primary supply.