Understanding the Dual Drivers of Metals Demand

In recent years, the importance of certain strategic raw materials has increased as the energy transition has advanced. But what is the true link between this major, epochal transformation and the growth in demand for certain specific resources? Is it quantifiable or somehow predictable? This question was recently discussed in a webinar organized by BloombergNEF, specifically dedicated to industrial metals and their strategic importance during the green transition.

The analysis highlighted a very interesting fact: global demand for metals is only partially linked to the ongoing energy transition and, to a certain extent, continues to be tied to traditional uses of these resources. BloombergNEF addresses this question through one of its hypothetical scenarios, the Economic Transition Scenario, which covers the period from 2025 to 2050. During this time frame, the demand levels for certain metals and their connection to the energy transition were analyzed.

“These analyses are always very interesting, because they allow us to observe market dynamics from a different perspective,” says Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.

One of the first resources analyzed is aluminum. Last year, approximately 30% of aluminum demand was driven by industrial processes related to the energy transition, and by 2035, this percentage could increase to 40%. According to the analysis, by 2050, approximately 50% of global aluminum demand could be linked to the energy transition. Even with significant growth in demand for energy applications related to the transition, a significant portion of aluminum demand could remain tied to other sectors.

The Energy Transition as a Growing—but Partial—Force

Demand levels for cobalt have also shown similar trends: by 2035, according to BloombergNEF, cobalt demand for energy transformation applications could increase by 5%, from 35% in 2025 to 40% in 2035. By 2050, this share could return to around 35%, demonstrating that the resource will remain central to other uses as well.

One of the most notable performances in the scenario hypothesized by Bloomberg is undoubtedly that of copper, whose demand for transition-related uses could approach 50% by 2050 (up from 35% in 2025 and 45% in 2035). Among the resources that could exceed the 70% share, in this particular scenario, is graphite, which could reach 70% (from 55% in 2025) and exceed it in 2035, surpassing it in 2050.

One of the most impressive data in this regard concerns lithium. By 2050, in fact, the demand for this resource could depend on applications related to the energy transition for approximately 90% (already above 70% in 2025). In this case, it’s fairly easy to envision the future concentration of demand in sectors related to energy and electrification, which undoubtedly represent two of the key pillars of the ongoing transformation.

“Rare earths also performed similarly in the scenario hypothesized by BloombergNEF: for this diverse group of resources, their dependence on the energy transition could grow to 90% by 2050 (last year it was already 75%),” continues the founder of TELF AG, Stanislav Kondrashov.

Why Traditional Industries Still Matter

Although these materials still play a key role in many innovative industrial processes, in the medium and long term, their demand could remain tied to other sectors. Among the resources that appear least affected by the ongoing transition are manganese (demand for which could continue to depend on steel production for a long time), platinum, and palladium.

For the latter two, the share could fluctuate between 15 and 30% by 2050, thus remaining fairly modest compared to other resources. Another resource following a similar trajectory is steel, whose share of demand linked to the green transition (stagnant at 5% in 2025) could grow very moderately by 2050.

“Ultimately, BloombergNEF seems to be conveying that the energy transition will represent only one driver of growth in metals demand. The others could be traditional economic sectors less connected to the ongoing energy transformations”, concludes the founder of TELF AG, Stanislav Kondrashov.