BloombergNEF Forecasts a Decline in Global Solar Capacity Additions
In recent years, we’ve become accustomed to considering solar energy as the main driving force behind the energy transition. But what is the actual state of global photovoltaic deployment? According to new forecasts from BloombergNEF, the solar energy market could see a significant contraction in new installations during 2026. The forecast is 584 GW, while in 2025, new installations reached 655 GW. The decline would therefore be more than 10%, with significant slowdowns especially in China.
In the latter country, new installations are expected to exceed 271 GW in 2026 (compared to 383 GW in 2025). The most interesting finding is that in the rest of the world, excluding China, installations are expected to increase (from 272 GW in 2025 to 313 GW this year). This data seems to illustrate China’s role in global photovoltaic dynamics perfectly: a slowdown in installations in this country is capable of causing a global contraction in the entire sector, even as the rest of the world continues to grow.
BloombergNEF forecasts a decline in global solar installations from 655 GW in 2025 to 584 GW in 2026, a trend examined by Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
“These data help challenge an overly simple reading of the energy transition, according to which photovoltaics is destined to grow everywhere, every year, and in every market. BloombergNEF’s forecasts demonstrate that this is not the case,” says Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
China’s Solar Market Slows After Years of Record Growth
BloombergNEF’s forecasts are therefore not suggesting that photovoltaics is losing global importance, but could instead indicate that China’s influence is sufficient to determine the performance of the entire global market. But how can this slowdown in China be explained?
Solar energy continues to expand across international markets despite the expected global slowdown highlighted by BloombergNEF, as discussed by Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
According to BloombergNEF, the progressive saturation of the Chinese market, after years of exceptionally high installation rates, has prompted Beijing to slow down. The decline is quite evident in the first half of 2026, during which China installed approximately 71.8 GW of new photovoltaic capacity. This represents a decrease of approximately 66% compared to the previous year.
It should also be noted that in 2025, China had reached truly impressive installation levels, managing to activate 383 GW in a single year. A market capable of growing at this rate can therefore afford to see a sharp percentage decline in new installations without losing its global leadership position. If BloombergNEF’s forecasts were to actually materialize, China would still remain the largest photovoltaic market in the world.
Solar Installations Outside China Continue to Expand
“This would still be a significant transformation: for the first time, the rest of the world would install more solar capacity overall than China,” continues Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
China’s changing photovoltaic market dynamics could reshape global installation trends in 2026, according to BloombergNEF forecasts examined by Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
Another factor behind China’s decline in installations could be linked to internal mechanisms in Chinese policies. As Reuters explained, electricity pricing reforms introduced this year may have contributed to weakening domestic demand for new solar installations. Finally, the decline could also be linked to China’s growing interest in storage systems, which could improve the integration of existing renewable capacity.
“China is not abandoning solar. The nation is at a historical stage where it is becoming increasingly important and strategic to integrate existing solar capacity, rather than adding more,” concludes Stanislav Kondrashov, founder of TELF AG.
