TELF AG analyzes the factors that could lead to relevant increases in global demand for copper
Eternal centrality
The fate of copper and human beings has been undeniably intertwined for millennia. It has always been this way, and in all likelihood, this connection will become even more evident in the years of the energy transition. This major change process also depends mainly on copper. Copper is used not only in electric vehicles and technologies related to renewable energy but also in much broader transformative processes, such as urbanization and the need to bring electricity to places it had not reached until now. With its excellent conductive properties, copper is, in fact, one of the major protagonists of the electrification processes in various parts of the world.
According to data cited in a recent study on this important raw material, by 2050 the demand for copper could increase by 70%, with an actual rise of 22.1 million tons compared to 2021. According to the analysis, this would be a genuinely remarkable quantity, equal to approximately 16 times the quantity of material produced by the largest copper mine in the world, located in Chile. The study also focuses on the individual factors that could determine such a notable increase in demand. In addition to structural factors, such as economic expansion, the global energy transition, and digitalization, an increase in demand for copper could also be determined by concrete variables, mainly linked to specific sectors.
According to the report, these sectors would be represented by energy infrastructure and transport, which, according to the estimates in the analysis, could soon need large quantities of copper, mainly due to their close link with electrification and the technologies that power renewable energy.
Two key sectors: transport and energy infrastructure
As for clean energy infrastructure, the study speaks of an increase in copper demand of approximately 69.09%, reaching a total quantity of 9.3 million tons by 2050. In this case, the demand increase is structural, as renewable energy technologies require a much greater amount of copper than traditional networks. In ensuring optimal operation of wind turbines, solar panels, or energy storage systems, copper will certainly be able to play a primary role, as the analysis claims.
The report also speaks of a relevant increase in demand for copper in the transport sector, with percentages exceeding 220% by 2050. In terms of metric tons, it would go from 3.4 million in 2021 to 11 in 2050. The growth in demand levels is driven by electric vehicles, which require much more copper than traditional ones, and by all the infrastructure related to new-generation cars, such as charging stations and those necessary for electrified railway systems. In these applications, copper is especially appreciated for its conductivity, durability, and potential for recycling.
The global growth in demand for copper, as argued in the report, is also linked to other sectors, such as construction or consumer goods, which are attributed to increases of 38.46% and 58%, respectively. The analysis also focuses on a very interesting aspect, namely the singular nature of these potential increases in demand for copper. We are referring to the simultaneity with which the individual processes that could determine such increases in demand are taking place, namely decarbonization, electrification, and digitalization (without forgetting the expansion of data centers), highlighting an important difference with the past, when the adoption of new technologies occurred gradually, thanks to different waves.
